Week 18 (2-3)

The final week of the NFL regular season can be bonkers. You have teams that need to win to clinch a playoff spot and have everything to play for against teams who may have already booked golf reservations on their vacation that starts Monday. You don't really know who's motivated and who isn't, teams are sitting players or playing their starters for a half and then pulling them, coaches are getting fired right after the game, etc. It can be a mess and this Week 18 was no different. Let's get into my picks for the last week.

Dolphins +1.0

Steelers -2.5

Colts -2.5

Bears +7.5

Saints -3.5

Dolphins +1

This one was kind of an easy week because of the line movement. Again, Circa Million releases their lines Thursday at 1PM EST. And they lock and don't change. By the time Saturday morning rolled around, the Dolphins were 3.5 favorites. Jets had nothing to play for and they announced 100-year-old Joe Flacco would start. So you're basically taking a team with a 4-point advantage at home and something to play for. I took the Dolphins and the game was a slog. They pulled it out late on a 50-yard FG and then got a ridiculous safety on a 40 lateral game on the last play to cover the main line. It knocked my Steelers out of the playoffs, but at least some silver lining was a victory in the Circa.

Steelers -2.5

Speaking of those Steelers, they had everything to play for against a team that didn't. Normally, I'd take that division rival that was playing spoiler, but you were getting the Steelers laying less than a FG, at home and the Steelers have just been playing well. Tomlin was doing his thing again where he doesn't have a losing season. And frankly, the Browns coach Stefanski and QB Watson are both awful. Steelers rolled to a 14-point victory for the easy cover. Oh wait and Watson was just sacked again!

Colts -2.5

This is where things took a turn. The good ol' Colts. I said last week that they looked like a team that packed it in. So what do I do? I turn around and take them again. But...I had reasons! Colts were at home, laying less than a FG to a team that I thought would be motivated to....lose! The Texans had the number one pick all ready to go with a loss. But what do they do? They rally from a 31-24 deficit late to scored a TD and then Lovie Smith elects to go for 2 and they get it! The Texans screwed up their number one pick as the Bears lost and have it now. Unreal. Of course, the Texans fired Lovie after the game probably pissed off that he won that game haha. So yeah, this game did not go the way I was thinking it would.

Bears +7.5

I liked the Bears all week. Classic bounce back play, home divisional dog plus Vikings usually don't cover high spreads, but probably should have laid off once Fields was announced that he would sit. I think this game was tainted by the one above it. Once the Texans took an early lead on the Colts, the Bears started pulling Nate Peterman and was playing Tim Boyle at one point. Then Peterman came back in, it was just a weird set of circumstances. And with the Texans winning like a bunch of idiots, the Bears seemed to be all too content with taking a loss to snatch that number one pick up. Bad job by me on this one.

Saints -3.5

So there were other games I liked and almost took this week. Commanders +7 who won straight up, Titans +6 on Saturday night in the AFC South showdown which they covered. Bengals -7.5 where the line ended up shooting up to double digits on Sunday, but I locked in the Saints at home instead. I thought their D which has been playing well would shut down the Panthers which they did but that Saints offense has been horrific. They had an early 7-0 lead and ended up losing 10-7. Probably should have went with one of the other games where teams were playing for something unlike this one that felt like the teams were just going through the motions until the final whistle so they could go on a long vacation.

A 2-3 finish for me in the final week is not how I wanted to finish out the season. I wasn't able to make it back to .500 as I finished the year going 4-10-1 in the final three weeks. Can't have that. This season was my first Circa Million and while it was frustrating and fun, I learned a lot. Hoping I can make it back to Vegas in the offseason to sign up for it again next year. Overall, 66% won the whole damn thing which is crazy hard to do. I was shooting for 60% and came up short on that goal.Thanks for following along this season!

Week 18: 2-3

Season: 41-44-5 (48.2%) and 43.5 points