Week 2 (4-1)

Week 2 (4-1) After a disappointing 2-3 Week 1, I targeted nine games that I was interested in taking in Week 2. After studying the lines all week, I settled on these five picks for a great bounce back week. Bounce back...that'll be a theme in this writeup. ​ Patriots -2 Saints +2.5 49ers -8.5 Cowboys +7 Cardinals +5.5 ​ ​ Patriots -2 The Circa releases the lines Thursday early afternoon and those lines are set through kickoff Sunday. I liked the Patriots opening line and was fine with taking it at -2. This game projected to be a low-scoring defensive battle and it was exactly that. Why did I like this game so much? It's the bounce back NFL. One, the Steelers were coming off a big upset win in Week 1 while the Patriots didn't look very good in their loss to Miami. Two, the Steelers needed about 17 turnovers and 9 missed/blocked kicks to win in Week 1 and losing TJ Watt would be a major blow to the defense. And three, Bill Belichick always finds a way to out coach Tomlin. The line moved to -3 by game time and Pats won by exactly that, just enough to have me sneak out a win in this one. ​ Saints +2.5 This was the only blemish for me in Week 2. Of the nine games I had written down, I went 7-2 overall. I could have picked the Jags or Dolphins for maybe a perfect week, but I think I was always taking this game. The Saints D just seems to have Brady's number since he went to Tampa. Plus, the Saints were a home divisional underdog and the Bucs were going on the road to try and cover as a road favorite two weeks in a row. That doesn't happen often, but unfortunately they did it here. Of course when I locked the picks in Saturday morning, I didn't know Jameis Winston was playing with a broken back. Geez. Nature of the beast when picks have to be in the day before gameday when using a proxy service. ​ 49ers -8.5 I loved picking this one as it was another classic bounce back NFL situation. Niners looked like shit in bad weather in Chicago in W1. Meanwhile, Seattle went nuts and played the game of their life to upset Geno Smith. Now the Niners were returning home to face the Hawks. When Lance went down with an injury, I think it may have worked out for the pick as Jimmy G came in and rolled showing the chemistry he had with the team was still there. I don't think it would have mattered either way, but the Niners 20-point win was an easy victory. ​ Cowboys +7 So I knew I was picking this game last Sunday when Dak was injured and announced that he would be out for weeks. Yes I know, Cooper Rush is the backup QB and there's no way he can compete with the Bengals. On paper, sure. On the football field? Nope. Rush and the Cowboys rose up at home and smacked the Bengals in the mouth. This was a slam dunk. There's a situational angle that someone brought to my attention years ago. When a star player is out like Dak was here, the market seems to overcompensate too far and go completely in the other direction in the next game when really when a star QB is out, the rest of the team usually plays up because they know they have to be at their best to have a chance in this game. This was a textbook play once Dak was announced he would miss this game and I easily selected the Cowboys and the 7 here. They ended up winning straight up...kicking myself for not sprinkling a little bit on the moneyline too. ​ Cardinals +5.5 This game looked dead in the water early on. The Raiders ran out to a big lead as the "what's wrong with Murray" talk continued on Twitter. I liked this line all week because I just don't think Carr should be laying 5.5 or more points to a team with the talent of the Cardinals. Yes, the Cards were a mess in the second half last year and their playoff game and Week 1. NO ONE seemed to be on the Cards in this game. It was like everyone left them for dead. And that's exactly a team I target. Carr and the Raiders always seem to play tight games and when they win, a lot of the time, it's a FG game or because of some late game heroics. Well the late-game heroics went to Murray and Arizona in this one. It was a lucky and miracleous comeback, but we'll take it every time as the Cards win in OT to give me the 4-1 week. ​ Week 2: 4-1 Season: 6-4 (60% ATS)