Week 3 (3-2)

Week 3 (3-2) I was shooting for back-to-back 4-1 weeks in the Circa, but a close call in Tampa Bay stopped that from happening. Overall, it was a good week so let's get into my picks: ​ ​ Dolphins +5.5 Jets +6 Titans +2 Jaguars +7 Bucs PK ​ Dolphins +5.5 This was a pretty easy spot for me to take Miami. Couple angles were in play here. One, it's a home divisional dog which I already am partial to. Then Buffalo was coming off back-to-back primetime wins including a blowout over the Titans in Week 2. Figured the general public would be all over Buffalo after two convincing wins in primetime and now they travel to Miami to face a divisional team in 80+ degree heat. It was Miami all the way and despite Tua's concussion and craziness of him coming back into the game, Dolphins covered the whole way. Jets +6 Sigh. I have 6 losses so far this season and two of them have been the Jets. Not that I'm keeping count. Teams that are 0-2 (Bengals) and laying points on the road in Week 3 are 1-6 since 2010. I felt like this was a good spot especially after the Jets had a miraculous comeback the week before in Cleveland. I took the 6 and nope. The Jets decided to kick FGs all day. Oh those J-E-T-S. I hope the Steelers bury them next week. Titans +2 Week 3 and on, if there are two winless teams playing just bet the underdog. I did that here and it was a slam dunk victory...despite the Titans trying to blow it late. Titans bounced back, Henry rebounded with a strong game and I haven't liked the Raiders all season. Someone in the AFC East is going to be bad and it looks like it's the Raiders. ​ Jaguars +7 So this was an up and down roller coaster all week. So the Circa releases their lines on Thursday early afternoon. The line was +7. No matter what injuries there are after that or how much a line moves, Circa's lines for the contest are locked. On Friday, the Herbert news hit and sportsbook reacted and dropped the line in half to 3.5. Some were even down to 3. It clearly looked like Herbert would not play because Vegas knows. This became a must play because of that. Anytime you get an edge of 3-4 points like that, you have to take it. Most in the contest would be on it and it was one of the more popular picks this week. But Sunday morning suddenly Herbert is active and playing! Mass hysteria! Line goes back up, but it didn't matter. Herbert wasn't 100% and Chargers also lost Bosa during the game and the Jags beat the wheels off them. Easy cover from start to finish. ​ Bucs PK Someone answer me something here...how do you get a delay of game on a game-typing 2-point conversion attempt? How do you even get in the situation of having the play clock under 5 in that situation? The Bucs looked lifeless most of the game, fumbled left and right and then when Brady makes his best drive of the game, scores a TD and goes for 2 to tie it....they get delay of game and don't convert after being backed up 5 yards. What a mess. Packers were on the road as road favorites for the second straight week and I liked the Bucs and Brady in that spot despite being down 100 receivers. Didn't work out this time, but oh so close. ​ Week 3: 3-2 Season: 9-6 (60% ATS)